|
The theory is this: the bookmakers collective price on any given sporting event must represent a fairly accurate estimate of the probability of that event. If one bookmaker deviates wildly from the consensus and offers much better odds, then the theory is that, at least on average, this will be a positive expectation wager.
Value is a purely mathematical way of calculating, how good an odds is. You are only using the odds and the probability of the outcome to evaluate the odds. Factors like league position, form, and injuries are not taken into consideration, it is all about the odds and the probability.
The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout for each dollar (currency used in this example) staked. The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout. That is how much you get in return for each dollar staked. You can calculate the value by using following formula:
Value = Odds x Probability (%)
If the value is above 1.00, then the bet odds is good. This means that your average payout per dollar is greater than 1,00. Each time you bet more than a dollar you will get more than a dollar back statistically. In this way, you should win money in the long run. This assumes that you know the true probalility of an outcome, which nobody does when it comes to sport events. When playing the roulette, you know the probability of red as an outcome, 18/37. But when it comes to sport events, like a football match between England and Brazil, you can only guess on the probability. There are too many factors involved to make a precise objection prediction possible.
Example
If you can get odds 5.00 at England to win over Brazil, and England has a 30% chance of winning, the odds will have following value:
Value: 5.00 x 30 = 1.50
Since the value is above 1.00, this is a good odds. In other words, statistically you will only win three out of 10 times. But each payout will be five times your stake. This gives a total payout of $15 if the stake is $1 each time. That is an average of 1.5 payout per bet, which is exactly what the value of the bet.
It is a method to find the odds, which not only are the the highest for the specific event, but in relative terms, the best of them all.
Notice that the same value, for example 1.05, can have very different probabilities. If you feel like taking a big chance - and maybe go for a big winning - bets with high odds and low probabilities are interesting. Conversely, if you are interested in finding a relatively safe bet, then low odds with high probabilities would be of interest.
|
